Passive Defense and Earthquake Risk Assessment in Urban Centers Using Linear Allocation Techniques (Case Study of Kermanshah Metropolis)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Postdoctoral Researcher, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.

2 Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Marand Islamic Azad University, Marand, Iran.

4 Expert, Management and Planning Organization, Kermanshah, Iran.

5 Urban Planning Researcher, Academic Center for Education, Culture and Research (ACECR), Isfahan Branch, Isfahan, Iran

Abstract

Iran’s location on a major seismic belt, the high vulnerability of its cities, and the inefficiency of the existing crisis management system highlight the necessity of applying passive defense principles. This study aims to assess earthquake risk in the metropolis of Kermanshah by identifying and analyzing vulnerability components across four dimensions—natural, physical, social, and economic—using 44 specialized indicators. Data were collected through questionnaires and expert consultations and processed using GIS and LINGO software. The applied method was the Linear Assignment Technique, which enables the ranking of urban districts in terms of seismic vulnerability. The results indicated that Districts 7 and 3 exhibit the highest levels of risk, whereas Districts 8 and 6 show the lowest levels of vulnerability. Furthermore, the findings revealed that the spatial overlap of physical and social indicators with fault-line locations plays a decisive role in the severity of potential damages. Based on these findings, the key factors contributing to increased risk in critical areas were identified, and strategies aligned with passive defense principles were proposed to reduce urban vulnerability.

Keywords

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References

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Passive Defense
Volume 16, Issue 4 - Serial Number 64
Serial number 64. Winter 2026
February 2026
Pages 105-120

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History

  • Receive Date: 12 July 2025
  • Revise Date: 18 August 2025
  • Accept Date: 20 September 2025
  • Publish Date: 19 February 2026

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