Explaining the Indicators for Improving the Resilience of Residential Areas Against Man-Made Threats (Case Study: Evin Neighborhood)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 PhD student, Department of Architectural, SR.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Architectural, SR.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

3 Professor, Department of Architectural, SR.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Throughout human history, housing has consistently been a fundamental need. Today, residential zones play a decisive role in shaping cities; however, they face considerable deficiencies across multiple resilience indicators. Consequently, natural and human-made hazards constitute a core challenge to achieving safety and sustainable security in residential areas. This applied study adopts a descriptive–analytical approach, using documentary research and questionnaires for data collection. First, intentional human-made threats were identified and evaluated with the MARCOS method. Second, indicators for enhancing the resilience of residential zones against these threats were specified and assessed using the IHWP method. Third, the results of the second stage were applied to the case study of the Evin neighborhood. Findings from stage one indicate that, among drone and missile attacks, mortar attacks, terrorist attacks, riots/unrest, arson, chemical attacks, and biological attacks, drone and missile attacks have the highest likelihood of occurrence. Stage-two results show that, in descending order, the criteria of building and structure, land use, urban spatial structure, architecture, supporting urban utilities and facilities, income, employment, population, and social cohesion exert the greatest influence on enhancing residential resilience. In stage three, the resilience of Evin’s residential zones to drone and missile attacks was estimated at 5.73%, signaling a highly unfavorable condition and multiple challenges across the neighborhood’s physical, socio-cultural, and economic dimensions.

Keywords


Smiley face

[1] A. Talebi Varnosfadrani, A.Shahivandi, & M. Mohammadi, "Historical analysis of Iran’s housing policies from the Islamic Revolution to 2021, " Urban Geography Research, vol.12(4), pp. 19–40. (2024) [In Persian].  https://doi.org/10.22059/jurbangeo.2024.381358.1981.
[2] Samadi Gharevorn, S., & Sairi, M. (2025). Resilient planning against disruptions and optimal siting of mobile energy storage systems in smart microgrids. Passive Defense, 16(2), 69–80. [In Persian]
[3] Poursalehi-Noveideh, M., Matinfar, A. R., Yadollahi, S., Asadollah Tuiserkani, M., & Mirtorabi, H. S. (2025). Enhancing social resilience based on difficulties in emotion regulation related to addiction to social networks and digital games through the mediation of life expectancy. Passive Defense, 16(2), 53–68. [In Persian]
[4] Afsari, R., Irji, H., & Joshanpour, M. (2025). Assessment of the vulnerability of physical (infrastructural) structures of Tehran metropolis against hard threats emphasizing passive defense principles. Geography (Regional Planning), 15(59). https://doi.org/10.22034/jgeoq.2025.531786.4290. [In Persian]
[5] Zafari, M., Ziari, K., Zangeneh Shahreki, S., & Rajaee, S. A. (2025). Analysis of the physical resilience of oil cities against earthquakes (Case study: Dogonbadan city). Geography (Regional Planning), 15(58), 29–49. https://doi.org/10.22034/jgeoq.2025.502587.4227. [In Persian]
[6] Abdi, Z., Ashnavi Nosh Abadi, A., & Meskini, E. (2022). Assessment of physical resilience using the TOPSIS–AHP model with emphasis on housing (Case study: Iranian counties). Safe City Journal, 5(1), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.22034/ispdrc.2022.254318. [In Persian]
[7]  Bitarafan, M., & Amini Hosseini, K. (2023). A model for assessing urban resilience against air attacks using the IHWP method (Case study: District 5 of Tehran). Safe City Journal, 6(1), 116–142. https://doi.org/10.22034/ispdrc.2023.2001724.1030. [In Persian]
[8] Afsari, R., & Hasan-Alizadeh, M. (2024). Analysis of resilience indicators in urban blocks with a passive defense approach (Case study: Tehran metropolis). Passive Defense, 15(4), 57–75. https://doi.org/20.1001.1.20086849.1403.15.4.5.8. [In Persian]
[9] Meshkini, A., Alipour, S., & Shaqaqi, M. (2025). Analysis of residential resilience of deteriorated neighborhoods against earthquakes (Case study: District 7, Tehran). Spatial Planning and Geomatics, advance publication. https://hsmsp.modares.ac.ir/article-21-78963-fa.html. [In Persian]
[10] Ongkowijoyo, C., & Doloi, H. (2020). Risk-based Resilience Assessment Model Focusing on Urban Infrastructure System Restoration. Procedia Engineering, 212.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2018.01.144.
[11] Bright, Elise M. M. (2020). Reviving America's Forgotten Neighborhoods (Contemporary Urban Affairs), Routledge, Edition 5st, 224 pages. https://www.amazon.com/Reviving-Americas-Forgotten-Neighborhoods-Revitalization/dp/0415945275
[12]  Chen, Guohua., Li, Jialing., Li, Xiaofeng., & Chen, Weisong. (2024). A method for assessing the resilience of urban interdependent systems integrating physical damage and social loss, Sustainable Cities and Society, Volume 115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2024.105866
[13] Almulhim. bdulaziz I., Cobbinah, Patrick Brandful. (2025), Dammam metropolitan area: Advancing the pursuit of urban housing resilience, Habitat International, Volume 163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2025.103499
[14]  Farajpour-Fard, A., Shoaleh, M., Lotfi, S., & Izadi, H. (2025). Rethinking urban resilience through smart city components (Case study: New City of Sadra). Spatial Geographic Planning, 15(1), 179–197. https://doi.org/10.30488/gps.2025.479848.3785. [In Persian]
[15] Meshkini, A., & Ne’matollahzadeh Mahani, A. H. (2024). Spatial analysis of housing resilience against natural hazards with emphasis on earthquakes (Case study: Southern districts of Tehran metropolis). Spatial Geographic Planning, 14(4), 153–177. https://doi.org/10.30488/gps.2025.474518.3775. [In Persian]
[16] Torabi, A., Hafezi Gol, S. H., & Hoodseni, H. (2024). Analysis of smart urban governance capacity for public space resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic (Case study: District 9 of Mashhad). Spatial Planning and Development, 4(1), 17–36. https://doi.org/10.22034/jpd.2024.2028900.1057. [In Persian]
[17] Hajarian, A. (2023). Explaining a paradigmatic model of rural housing resilience with an emphasis on rural economy. Regional Urban Geography and Development, 13(48), 39–58. https://doi.org/20.1001.1.23452277.1402.13.48.2.3. [In Persian]
[18] Meshkini, A., & Shakeri Mansour, E. (2023). Relief for the urban poor: A model for planning homeless housing in Tehran metropolis. Regional Planning Quarterly, 13(51), 57–72. [In Persian]
[19]  Kamali, M., Tabibian, M., & Elahi, M. (2021). Analysis of the physical resilience of social housing against earthquakes using Moran’s technique (Case study: Pounak neighborhood, Zanjan). Crisis Prevention and Management Knowledge, 11(3), 310–326. [In Persian]
[20] Ikudayisi, A.E., Taiwo, A.A. (2023), "Accessibility and inclusive use of public spaces within the city-centre of Ibadan, Nigeria", Journal of Place Management and Development, 15(3), 316-335. https://doi.org/10.1108/JPMD-08-2020-0077
[21] Urbina, O., Sousa, H. S., Fekete, A., Matos, J. C., & Teixeira, E. (2023). Spatial Vulnerability Assessment of Critical Infrastructure Based on Fire Risk through GIS Systems—Case Study: Historic City Center of Guimarães, Portugal. Applied Sciences, 13(15), 8881. https://doi.org/10.3390/app13158881
[22]  Kalantari Khalilabad, H., Abazarlou, S., & Heidari, A. (2022). Identification of urban vulnerability processes with a passive defense approach. Tehran: University of Art Press. [In Persian]
[23]Abazarlou, S. (2013). Evaluation of urban vulnerability with a passive defense approach using fuzzy logic [Master’s thesis, Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch]. https://ctb.iau.ir/fa/page/185. [In Persian]
[24] National Passive Defense Organization. (2016). Risk Assessment Guideline. Tehran: Technical Deputy of the National Passive Defense Organization. [In Persian]
[25]  Al-Mawali, N., Hasim, H.M. & Al-Busaidi, K. (2016). Modelling the impact of the oil sector on the economy of sultanate of Oman. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6(1), 120-127. doi.org/10.3390/math11010094.
[26] Bitarafan, M., Abazarlou, S., & Zarei, G. (2025). Assessment of neighborhood resilience against terrorist attacks (Case study: Bagh-e Feiz, Tehran). Spatial and Urban Studies Quarterly, 9(34), 131–152. https://doi.org/10.22034/jspr.2025.2049650.1110. [In Persian]
[27]  Zarei, G., & Abazarlou, S. (2024). Passive Defense Planning. Tehran: Shahid Motahari Basij College Press. [In Persian]
[28] Alavi, S. A. (2021). Analysis of social resilience of housing in deteriorated urban fabric (Case study: Hadiabad neighborhood, Qazvin) [Master’s thesis, Tarbiat Modares University]. [In Persian]
[29] Zarei, G., Kahouri, M., & Abazarlou, S. (2024). Modern Warfare. Tehran: Shahid Motahari Basij College Press. [In Persian]
[30] Sen, Mrinal Kanti., Dutta, Subhrajit., & Kabir., Golam. (2022).Modelling and quantification of time-varying flood resilience for housing infrastructure using dynamic Bayesian Network, Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume 361, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132266
[31] Lane, Karen, Hillery, Shannon, Majkowski, Ryan, Barney, Bradley J., Amirault, Daniel, Nelson, Sarah J.,Mary Bailey, Eun Hea Unsicker, Mary Stroud, Lindsay M. Eyzaguirre, Amy Gawad, Angeline Nanni, Gwendolyn Mirzoyan, Theodora Cohen, Salina P. Waddy & Ken Wiley et al. (2024). Selecting important centers using a standardized, automated site assessment survey instrument (SASI), Contemporary Clinical Trials, volum 143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cct.2024.107583.
[32] Li, Fan., Li, Yan., Rubinato, Matteo., Zheng, Yu., & Zhou, Tao. (2024). Risk assessment of urban infrastructure vulnerability to disasters: A case study of Dongguan, China., International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,Volume 114,104943, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104943
[33] Marchezini, Victor., Midori Saito, Silvia., Londe, Luciana R., Dalla Libera Damacena, Fernanda. (2025). Implementation challenges of disaster risk management policies: The organizational capacities of municipal civil defense units, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,Volume 119 ,105291. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105291.
[34] Jalili Sadrabad, S., & Puri Rahim, M. (2024). Resilience of smart city infrastructures with a passive defense approach (Case study: District 4 of Tehran). Safe City Journal. Advance online publication.  https://doi.org/10.22034/ispdrc.2024.2038047.1126. [In Persian]
[35] Torabi, K. (2009). The role of communication networks in mitigating earthquake impacts: Case study of District 1, Region 6 of Tehran Municipality [Master’s thesis, Iran University of Science and Technology]. [In Persian]
[36] Bramley, G., Dempsey, N., Power, S., Brown, C., & Watkins, D. (2009). Social sustainability and urban form: evidence from five British cities. Environment and planning A, 41(9), 2125-2142. https://doi.org/10.1068/a41
[37] Debucquet, Gervaise., Maignant, Allan., Laroche, Anne-Laure., Widehem, Caroline., & Morel Philippe. (2022). Bringing nature into private urban housing: Environmental, social and food connections for urban resilience, Cities, Volume 13.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2022.104007
[38] Zhang, Honglei., Xia, Xinying., Wang., Shuying, Xu., Caixia, Li., Yajin & Yang, Yang. (2025). Spatial dynamics and economic impacts of shared accommodations on urban housing and hotel markets, Journal of Destination Marketing & Management,Volume 37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2025.101023
[39]  Yang, Z. & Pan, Y. (2020). Human capital, housing prices, and regional economic development: Will “vying for talent” through policy succeed? Cities Journal, 98, ‏102-577.‎ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2019.102577.
[40] Schneider, C. (2012). Sustainable Reconstruction in Disaster-Affected Countries: Practical Guidelines, United Nations Environment Programme and Skat, Swiss Resource Centre and Consultancies for Development.
[41]  Bitarafan, M. (2011). Evaluation of architectural compatibility criteria with a passive defense approach [Master’s thesis, Malek Ashtar University of Technology]. [In Persian]
[42] Bitarafan, M. (2023). Developing a model for rapid assessment of city resilience against natural and man-made threats [Doctoral dissertation, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES)]. [In Persian]
[43] Hosseini, B., Bitarafan, M., Hosseini, B., & Hashemi-fesharak, J. (2013). Openings compatible with passive defense architecture by using Analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Journal of Architecture and Urban Planning, 6(11), 25-38.
[44] Hosseini, S. B., Bitarafan, M., Hashemi-Fesharaki, S. J., & Norouzian-Maleki, S. (2012). The role of basic forms buildings in explosion protection. International Journal of Science and Advanced Technology, 2(8), 47-50.
[45] Nakhaei, J., Forghani, S., Bitarafan, M., Lale Arefi, S., & Šaparauskas, J. (2015). Reinforcement of laminated glass facades against the blast load. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 21(8), 1085-1097.
[46] Bitarafan, M., Hosseini, S. B., Abazarlou, S., & Mahmoudzadeh, A. (2015). Selecting the optimal composition of architectural forms from the perspective of civil defense using AHP and IHWP methods. Architectural Engineering and Design Management, 11(2), 137-148.
[47] Fernandez, G., & Ahmed, I. (2019). Build back better approach to disaster recovery: Research trends since 2006, Progress in Disaster Science, 1(2019), 100003 Contents. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2019.100003
[48] Huang, X., & Lanz, B. (2018). The value of air quality in Chinese cities: Evidence from labor and property market outcomes. Environmental and Resource Economics, 71(4), 849-874.
[49] Sullivan, Esther., Ward, Peter M. (2012). Sustainable housing applications andpolicies for low-income self-build and housing rehabHabitat International, 36(2). 312–323. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2011.10.009
[50] Liu, Qiong., Zhang, Limao., Skibniewski, Miroslaw J., (2025). Network extension planning towards resilient urban critical infrastructures using deep reinforcement learning, Applied Soft Computing, Volume 176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2025.113163
[51] General Economics Division. (2018). Sustainable development Goals: Bangladesh progress report 2018. In United nations department of economic and social affairs (Issue December).
[52] Nicol, L. A., & Knoepfel, P. (2014). Resilient housing: a new resource-oriented approach. Building Research & Information, 42(2), 229–239. https://doi.org/10.1080/09613218.2014.862162
[53] Khiabanchian, N., Khameh, M., Sajadzadeh, H., & Eslampour, Sh. (2024). Explaining the relationship between physical and social factors in spatial resilience of urban squares (Case study: Imam, Bu-Ali, and Baba Taher Squares of Hamedan). Urban and Regional Development Planning Quarterly, 9(28), 107–149. https://doi.org/10.22054/urdp.2023.73364.1543. [In Persian]
[54] Tajmiri-Rostami, F., & Farhadi, F. (2021). Resilient supplier selection using a new multi-criteria decision-making method: Measurement and ranking based on the compromise solution (MARCOS). Andisheh Amad, 20(79), 169–193. https://sid.ir/paper/952862/fa. [In Persian]
[55] Tabee, N., Jafari, A., Jasemi, S. M., & Jahani Rad, H. (2025). The role of social capital in passive defense in border areas: Case study of Baneh city. Passive Defense, 16(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/20.1001.1.20086849.1404.16.1.1.5. [In Persian]
[56] Bitarafan, M., Hosseini, K.A., Hashemkhani Zolfani, S. et al. Evaluating earthquake resilience in urban areas: A novel fuzzy RANCOM approach. Environ Dev Sustain (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-025-06393-z
Volume 17, Issue 1 - Serial Number 65
Serial number 65. Spring 2026
May 2026
Pages 103-122
  • Receive Date: 08 August 2025
  • Revise Date: 06 October 2025
  • Accept Date: 17 December 2025
  • Publish Date: 22 May 2026