Conceptual Modeling of Urban Fire and Accident Risk Management with a Passive Defense Approach (Case Study: Mashhad Metropolis)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 PhD student, , Industerial Engineering,University of EyvaneKey, EyvaneKey,Iran

2 Department of Applied mathematics ,Imam ‎Hossein ‎University,Tehran, Iran

3 Assistant Professor,Department of Industrial Engineering, University of EyvaneKey, EyvaneKey ,Iran

Abstract

The rapid expansion of urbanization, population growth, and escalating natural and anthropogenic hazards in urban settings, the passive defense approach has emerged as a fundamental strategy to mitigate urban vulnerability and enhance resilience. This study aims to develop a conceptual model for urban fire and incident risk management, grounded in passive defense principles, with a specific focus on the metropolis of Mashhad—recognized as the spiritual capital of the Islamic world and Iran’s second-largest metropolitan area. Employing a qualitative, exploratory research design, this investigation utilizes thematic analysis as its methodological framework. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 20 qualified experts—including university scholars, experienced urban managers, and professionals from the Mashhad Municipal Fire and Safety Services Organization—alongside a systematic review of peer-reviewed articles, official documents, and incident reports pertinent to urban fires and emergencies. Data analysis was conducted using thematic analysis techniques supported by MAXQDA software. The validity of the extracted model was rigorously assessed through Content Validity Ratio (CVR) and Content Validity Index (CVI) metrics. Findings indicate that factors influencing the occurrence and propagation of urban fires and incidents encompass 9 core dimensions and 58 constituent components. These principal dimensions include: socioeconomic factors (4 components), demographic characteristics (4 components), human and cultural factors (7 components), physical, urban planning, and technical infrastructure (11 components), tourism and pilgrimage-related factors (4 components), governance and managerial factors (8 components), construction-related factors (8 components), temporal, climatic, and environmental features (3 components), and structural factors of firefighting and emergency response organizations (9 components). Finally, the dimensions and components of the model obtained were categorized into four main areas of passive defense (physical and technical, cultural, people-centered (participatory), and economic). The proposed model, emphasizing the improvement of safety infrastructure, the development of preventive strategies, education, and public participation, shows that urban safety is the product of a dynamic interaction between city hardware, cultural software, social capital, and the financial and economic capacity of urban management.

Keywords


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Volume 17, Issue 1 - Serial Number 65
Serial number 65. Spring 2026
May 2026
Pages 163-191
  • Receive Date: 22 October 2025
  • Revise Date: 29 November 2025
  • Accept Date: 08 February 2026
  • Publish Date: 22 May 2026