ارزیابی ریسک در پروژه‌های راه‌سازی بر مبنای استاندارد PMBOK مورد مطالعه: پروژه ساخت پل کابلی شهرستان ساری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

علوم و فنون مازندران

چکیده

انجام پروژه‌های عمرانی بدون شک تواًم با ریسک‌های فراوان خواهد بود. اغلب در اجرای پروژه‌ها ریسک‌ها نادیده گرفته می‌شوند یا به بخش‌هایی که دانش، منابع و ظرفیت‌های کافی برای مدیریت موثر آن­ها را ندارد تخصیص داده می‌شوند که نتیجه آن افزایش هزینه‌ها، کاهش کیفیت انجام امور و در نهایت تأخیر در پروژه است. شناسایی ریسک و تخصیص آن دو فاکتور قدرتمند در تصمیمات مدیریت ریسک است. هدف از انجام این تحقیق رتبه‌بندی ریسک‌های موجود در پروژه راه‌سازی ساخت پل کابلی شهرستان ساری تحت استاندارد PMBOK و نیز تعیین ریسک‌پذیرترین حوزه‌های این استاندارد می‌باشد. همچنین این تحقیق با رتبه‌بندی و تعیین مهم­ترین ریسک‌های پروژه‌های راه‌سازی، به تعیین این مهم می‌پردازد که مهم­ترین ریسک‌ها در کدام یک از حوزه‌ها قرار دارند. برای این منظور با استفاده از روش دلفی ریسک­های پروژه شناسایی و سپس برای رتبه­بندی این اطلاعات از فرآیند تحلیل شبکه‌ای استفاده شده است. پس از پیاده­سازی مدل شبکه­ای تولید­شده در نرم‌افزار Super Decision، مدیریت هزینه و مدیریت زمان به عنوان ریسک­پذیرترین حوزه­های استاندارد PMBOK شناخته شده­اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Risk Assessment in Road Construction Projects Based on the PMBOK Standard Case study: (Cable Bridge Construction Project the City of Sari)

چکیده [English]

Large construction projects undoubtedly will be accompanied by many risks. Risks are often ignored in project implementation or allocated to sectors that do not have the knowledge, resources, and capacities to manage risks effectively, and this will lead to additional costs, reduction of the performance, and eventually delays in the project. Risk identification and allocation are the two key factors in risk management decisions. Due to the impact of risk factors, the probability of the risk and Chance of risk detection, each one of the risks can be affected by other risk factors. The purpose of this study is to rank the risk of road construction projects based on the PMBOK standard and determine the most risky areas of this standard. The use of this approach has been studied in a real project and Delphi method has been used to gather information about the conditions of the project. To rank this information, the network analysis process was used, after the implementation of the network model produced in Super Decision software, cost management and time management were identified as the most risky areas of the PMBOK standard.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Risk Management
  • Project Management Body Of Knowledge
  • Network Analysis Process
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