آینده‌پژوهی توسعه درون‌زا مناطق پرتراکم شهری با رویکرد زیست‌پذیری (مطالعه موردی: مناطق 19 و 20 شهرداری تهران)

صدیقی, محمدحسن; مسعود, محمد; تدین, بهاره

آینده‌پژوهی توسعه درون‌زا مناطق پرتراکم شهری با رویکرد زیست‌پذیری (مطالعه موردی: مناطق 19 و 20 شهرداری تهران)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ استاد، مجتمع دانشگاهی مهندسی و پدافند غیر عامل، دانشگاه صنعتی مالک اشتر، تهران، ایران

² استاد شهرسازی دانشگاه هنر اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

³ استادیار شهرسازی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران

چکیده

یکی از رویکردهایی که بر مبنای مفهوم پدافند غیر عامل، موجب توسعه پایدارتر شهرها و تداوم سکونت در آنها می‌شود، رویکرد زیست‌پذیری است. هدف از پژوهش کاربردی- توسعه‌ای حاضر، آینده‌پژوهی ارتقاء زیست‌پذیری در مناطق پرتراکم 19 و 20 شهر تهران است. در این راستا، ابتدا با مطالعات اسنادی، شاخص‌های موثر بر زیست‌پذیری محیطی استخراج و روایی آنان توسط کارشناسان شهرسازی، تایید گردید. سپس با دریافت نظرات تیم 24 نفره تیم کارشناسان دلفی که بر اساس تسلط نظری، تجربه عملی و آمادگی جهت همکاری انتخاب شدند و استفاده از نرم‌افزار میک‌مک، شاخص‌های کلیدی موثر بر زیست‌پذیری محیطی در مناطق پرتراکم شهری با استفاده از نرم‌افزار میک‌مک شناسایی شدند و پس از آن با بهره‌مندی از نرم‌افزار سناریوویزارد، و شناسایی سناریوهای زیست‌پذیری در مناطق پرتراکم 19 و 20 تهران، دو گروه سناریوی قوی به دست آمد. یافته‌های پژوهش بیانگر آن است که هشت شاخص طرح‌های توسعه شهری، اختلاط کاربری، بودجه مدیریت شهری، مشارکت مردم در تصمیمات شهری، تنوع فرصت‌های شغلی، هویت و حس تعلق به مکان، آلودگی هوا و کیفیت فضای سبز شهری، شاخص‌های کلیدی موثر بر زیست‌پذیری شهری در مناطق پرتراکم 19 و 20 شهر تهران هستند و در این راستا، سناریوهای گروه اول، بیانگر سناریویی کاملا مطلوب و گروه دوم بیانگر سناریوهایی بود که در وضعیتی نامطلوب قرار دارند. در مواجهه با سناریوی اول، رویکردی تهاجمی و عمدتاً زیرساختی و کالبدی جهت ارتقاء زیست‌پذیری محیطی مد نظر قرار می‌گیرد، حال آنکه در مواجهه با سناریوی دوم، رویکردی تدافعی و عمدتا کارکردی و فعالیتی اتخاذ می‌گردد تا وضعیت زیست‌پذیری محیطی بیش از پیش کاهش نیابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

20.1001.1.20086849.1403.15.3.5.6

عنوان مقاله [English]

Future Research of Endogenous Development of Dense Urban Areas with a Livability Approach (Case Study: Districts 19 and 20 of Tehran)

نویسندگان [English]

Mohammad Hasan Sedighi ¹
Mohammad Masoud ²
Bahareh Tadayon ³

¹ Department of Urban Planning; Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch; Islamic Azad University; Isfahan; Iran

² Professor of Art University of Isfahan

³ Department of Urban Planning; Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch; Islamic Azad University; Isfahan; Iran

چکیده [English]

One of the approaches that, based on the concept of non-active defense, causes more sustainable development of cities and the continuation of living in them, is the livability approach. The purpose of the current applied-developmental research is to study the future of improving livability in densely populated areas 19 and 20 of Tehran. In this regard, firstly, with documentary studies, indicators effective on environmental livability were extracted and their validity was confirmed by urban planning experts. Then, by receiving the opinions of the 24-member team of Delphi experts, who were selected based on their theoretical mastery, practical experience, and willingness to cooperate, and using Micmac software, the key indicators affecting environmental livability in dense urban areas were identified using Micmac software, and after It was obtained by benefiting from the scenario wizard software, and by identifying livability scenarios in densely populated areas 19 and 20 of Tehran, two groups of strong scenarios were obtained. The findings of the research show that eight indicators of urban development plans, mix of uses, urban management budget, people's participation in urban decisions, variety of job opportunities, identity and sense of belonging to a place, air pollution and quality of urban green space, are key indicators affecting urban livability. There are 19 and 20 densely populated areas of Tehran, and in this regard, the scenarios of the first group represented a completely favorable scenario and the second group represented scenarios that are in an unfavorable situation. In the face of the first scenario, an aggressive and mainly infrastructural and physical approach is considered to improve environmental livability, while in the face of the second scenario, a defensive and mainly functional and activity approach is adopted so that the environmental livability situation does not decrease further.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Future Research
Endogenous Development
Livability
19th District of Tehran
20th District of Tehran

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