آینده‌پژوهی توسعه درون‌زا مناطق پرتراکم شهری با رویکرد زیست‌پذیری (مطالعه موردی: مناطق 19 و 20 شهرداری تهران)

صدیقی, محمدحسن; مسعود, محمد; تدین, بهاره

آینده‌پژوهی توسعه درون‌زا مناطق پرتراکم شهری با رویکرد زیست‌پذیری (مطالعه موردی: مناطق 19 و 20 شهرداری تهران)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ دانشجوی دکتری شهرسازی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران

² استاد دانشگاه هنر اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

³ استادیار شهرسازی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران

چکیده

یکی از رویکردهایی که بر مبنای مفهوم پدافند غیر عامل، موجب توسعه پایدارتر شهرها و تداوم سکونت در آنها می‌شود، رویکرد زیست‌پذیری است. هدف از پژوهش کاربردی- توسعه‌ای حاضر، آینده‌پژوهی ارتقاء زیست‌پذیری در مناطق پرتراکم 19 و 20 شهر تهران است. در این راستا، ابتدا با مطالعات اسنادی، شاخص‌های موثر بر زیست‌پذیری محیطی استخراج و روایی آنان توسط کارشناسان شهرسازی، تایید گردید. سپس با دریافت نظرات تیم 24 نفره تیم کارشناسان دلفی که بر اساس تسلط نظری، تجربه عملی و آمادگی جهت همکاری انتخاب شدند و استفاده از نرم‌افزار میک‌مک، شاخص‌های کلیدی موثر بر زیست‌پذیری محیطی در مناطق پرتراکم شهری با استفاده از نرم‌افزار میک‌مک شناسایی شدند و پس از آن با بهره‌مندی از نرم‌افزار سناریوویزارد، و شناسایی سناریوهای زیست‌پذیری در مناطق پرتراکم 19 و 20 تهران، دو گروه سناریوی قوی به دست آمد. یافته‌های پژوهش بیانگر آن است که هشت شاخص طرح‌های توسعه شهری، اختلاط کاربری، بودجه مدیریت شهری، مشارکت مردم در تصمیمات شهری، تنوع فرصت‌های شغلی، هویت و حس تعلق به مکان، آلودگی هوا و کیفیت فضای سبز شهری، شاخص‌های کلیدی موثر بر زیست‌پذیری شهری در مناطق پرتراکم 19 و 20 شهر تهران هستند و در این راستا، سناریوهای گروه اول، بیانگر سناریویی کاملا مطلوب و گروه دوم بیانگر سناریوهایی بود که در وضعیتی نامطلوب قرار دارند. در مواجهه با سناریوی اول، رویکردی تهاجمی و عمدتاً زیرساختی و کالبدی جهت ارتقاء زیست‌پذیری محیطی مد نظر قرار می‌گیرد، حال آنکه در مواجهه با سناریوی دوم، رویکردی تدافعی و عمدتا کارکردی و فعالیتی اتخاذ می‌گردد تا وضعیت زیست‌پذیری محیطی بیش از پیش کاهش نیابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

20.1001.1.20086849.1403.15.3.5.6

عنوان مقاله [English]

Future Research of Endogenous Development of Dense Urban Areas with a Livability Approach (Case Study: Districts 19 and 20 of Tehran)

نویسندگان [English]

Mohammad Hasan Sedighi ¹
Mohammad Masoud ²
Bahareh Tadayon ³

¹ PhD student in Urban Planning, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran

² Professor of Art University of Isfahan

³ Department of Urban Planning; Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch; Islamic Azad University; Isfahan; Iran

چکیده [English]

One of the approaches that, based on the concept of non-active defense, causes more sustainable development of cities and the continuation of living in them, is the livability approach. The purpose of the current applied-developmental research is to study the future of improving livability in densely populated areas 19 and 20 of Tehran. In this regard, firstly, with documentary studies, indicators effective on environmental livability were extracted and their validity was confirmed by urban planning experts. Then, by receiving the opinions of the 24-member team of Delphi experts, who were selected based on their theoretical mastery, practical experience, and willingness to cooperate, and using Micmac software, the key indicators affecting environmental livability in dense urban areas were identified using Micmac software, and after It was obtained by benefiting from the scenario wizard software, and by identifying livability scenarios in densely populated areas 19 and 20 of Tehran, two groups of strong scenarios were obtained. The findings of the research show that eight indicators of urban development plans, mix of uses, urban management budget, people's participation in urban decisions, variety of job opportunities, identity and sense of belonging to a place, air pollution and quality of urban green space, are key indicators affecting urban livability. There are 19 and 20 densely populated areas of Tehran, and in this regard, the scenarios of the first group represented a completely favorable scenario and the second group represented scenarios that are in an unfavorable situation. In the face of the first scenario, an aggressive and mainly infrastructural and physical approach is considered to improve environmental livability, while in the face of the second scenario, a defensive and mainly functional and activity approach is adopted so that the environmental livability situation does not decrease further.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Future Research
Endogenous Development
Livability
19th District of Tehran
20th District of Tehran

مراجع

[1] F. Sasanpour, “Livable city one step towards sustainable development,” Journal of Contemporary Urban Affairs, vol. 1(3), pp. 13-17, 2017. DOI: 10.25034/ijcua.2018.3673.

[2] S. Hasanpour Loumer, A. Nejad Ebrahimi, S. Sattari Sarbangholi, A. Vandshoari, “Rereading the Principles and Concepts of Passive Defense in the Historical City of Masouleh,” Middle Eastern Journal of Disability Studies, Volume 15, Issue 1 - Serial Number 57, Pages 47-60, DOI: 20.1001.1.20086849.1403.15.1.5.2, [In Persian].

[3] Y. HakimDoust, M. Moradi, Sh. Rostami, A. Nazari, “Spatial analysis of livability in border villages of Hirmand city with emphasis on passive defense,” Volume 7, Number 26, pp. 101-126, 2018, [In Persian].

[4] M. Soleimani Mehranjani, S. Tolaie, M. Rafiyan, A. Zanganeh, F. Khazainejad, “Urban livability: concept, principles, dimensions and indicators,” Urban Planning Geography Researches, Volume 4, Number 1, Spring 2015, pp. 27-50, DOI: 10.22059/JURBANGEO.2016.58120, [In Persian].

[5] B. Behmanesh, S. Shafaghi, R. Mokhtari Malakabady, “Spatial Assessment and Analysis of Endogenous Development Zones; the Case Study of Region 3 of Isfahan Metropolis,” GeoRes, 2020; 35(4): 367-375, URL: http://georesearch.ir/article-1-920-fa.html, [In Persian].

[6] F. Noorian, S. Abdullahpur Razkenari, S. S. Ghazi, “Prioritizing of infill development strategies in urban areas transect zone (Case Study: District 6 of Mashhad),” Volume 7, Issue 28 - Serial Number 28, Pages 65-78, DOI: 10.34785/J011.2018.017, [In Persian].

[7] F. Sasanpour, S. Tavalaiy, H. Jafari Asasabadi, “Study of Urban Livability in Twenty-two Districts of Tehran Metropolitan,” Journal of Regional Planning, Volume 5, No. 18, Pages 27-42, [In Persian].

[8] H. Ghorbanlou, M. Masoumi T., M. Yazdani H., “Strategic analysis of urban regeneration with an emphasis on social components in peri-urban spaces (case: worn-out fabric of Tehran's 20th district),” DOI: 20.1001.1.26764164.1401.4.2.2.5, [In Persian].

[9] A. Movahed, M. Ahmadi, “Planning the redevelopment of abandoned urban lands in the 19th district of Tehran with an emphasis on the intermediate development approach (case study: 19th district of Tehran),” DOI: https://doi.org/10.30473/psp.2018.4831, [In Persian].

[10] M.K. Falconer J.E. Frank, “Sufficiency of infrastructure capacity for infill development,” Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 116(3), pp. 137-148.

[11] W.H. Hudnut III, “Comment on J. Terrence Farris's 'the barriers to using urban infill development to achieve smart growth.'”

[12] S. Willey et al., “Acceleration of mesoderm development and expansion of hematopoietic progenitors in differentiating ES cells by the mouse Mix-like homeodomain transcription factor,” Blood, 107(8), pp. 3122-3130.

[13] A. Downs, “What Does Smart Growth Really Matter?” Planning, 67(4): pp. 20-25.

[14] R.W. Burchell et al., “Smart growth: More than a ghost of urban policy past, less than a bold new horizon,” Housing Policy Debate, 11(4), pp. 821-879, DOI: 10.1080/10511482.2000.9521390.

[15] A.M. Hinze D.R. Judd, “City politics: The political economy of urban America,” Routledge, https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315166018.

[16] D. Myers A. Kitsuse, “The Debate Over Future Density of Development: An Interpretive Review,” Lincoln Institute of Land Policy Working Paper, Cambridge MA.

[17] F. Bo, Y. Danlin, Z. Yaojun, “The livable urban landscape: GIS and remote sensing extracted land use assessment for urban livability in Changchun Proper, China,” Land Use Policy, vol. 87, 104048, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104048. [18] B. A. Sochacka, S. J. Kenway, M. A. Renouf, “Liveability and its interpretation in urban water management: Systematic literature review,” Cities, vol. 113, 103154, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2021.103154.

[19] J. L. Leby A. H. Hashim, “Liveability dimensions and attributes: Their relative importance in the eyes of neighbourhood residents,” Journal of Construction in Developing Countries, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 67-91, 2010.

[20] R. Cowan, The Dictionary of Urbanism, Streetwise Press, 2005.

[21] A. Ashnoi Noushabadi M. Mohammad Ebrahimi, “Determining the key drivers affecting urban livability with a future research approach: A case study of Kashan city,” Scientific Journal of Geography and Planning, vol. 25, no. 76, pp. 27-41, 2021. https://doi.org/10.22034/gp.2021.13132, [In Persian].

[22] A. Bandarabad F. Ahmadinejad, “Evaluation of quality of life indicators with emphasis on the principles of a livable city in the 22nd district of Tehran,” Journal of Urban Planning and Research, vol. 5, no. 16, pp. 55-74, 2013. DOI:10.30495/JUPM.2021.28104.3898, [In Persian].

[23] T. Norris M. Pittman, “The healthy communities movement and the coalition for healthier cities and communities,” Public Health Reports, vol. 115, no. 2-3, pp. 118-118, 2000. doi:10.1093/phr/115.2.118.

[24] A. Elkawy A. Ahmed, “Principles of Infill Development Policy towards Sustainable Urban Containment in Residential Areas,” SVU-International Journal of Engineering Sciences and Applications, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 119-148, 2023. DOI:10.21608/SVUSRC.2023.201444.1117.

[25] C. Ferreira, Z. Kalantari P. Pereira, “Liveable cities: Current environmental challenges and paths to urban sustainability,” Journal of Environmental Management, DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111458.

[26] E. Sofeska, “Understanding the livability in a city through smart solutions and urban planning toward developing sustainable livable future of the city of Skopje,” Procedia Environmental Sciences, vol. 37, pp. 442-453, 2017.

[27] B. L. Saitluanga, “Spatial pattern of urban livability in Himalayan Region: A case of Aizawl City, India,” Social Indicators Research, vol. 117, pp. 541-559, DOI:10.1007/s11205-013-0362-3.

[28] L. Baluchzehi M. Amin H. Izadi, “Structural analysis of the factors and drivers affecting the livability of the border city of Saravan using the method of mutual effects analysis,” Geography and Urban and Regional Planning, no. 50, pp. 97-122, 2024 DOI:10.22111/GAIJ.2024.44505.3087, [In Persian].

[29] S. Dolatshah R. Sarvar A. Tavaklan, “Assessment of Urban Liveability in Iranian Oil Cities Case Study: Bandar Mahshahr,” Journal of Sustainable City, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 69-78, 2021 DOI:10.22034/JSC.2021.250463.1322,[In Persian].

[30] J. Mahdiyoun A. Shokouhi, “Analysis of the Physical-Environmental Indicators of Liveable on Zanjan with Futuristic Approach,” vol. 20, no. 71, pp. 135-157, 2020,[In Persian].

[31] M. Heydari, A. Anbarloo, M. Rahmani, H. Tahmasebi, “Monitoring Social Living Experience in Urban Space with Future Research Approach (Case Study: Zanjan City),” Scientific Journal of Geography and Planning, vol. 24, no. 73, pp. 121-155, 2020. DOI:10.22034/gp.2020.10782, [In Persian].

[32] B. Imani, “The Formulation of Livability Scenarios of Rural Areas based on the Principles of Futures Studies, Case Study of Eslamabad-e-Gharb County,” Geography and Environmental Planning, vol. 30, no. 76, pp. 35-56, 2020. DOI:10.22108/GEP.2020.120585.1240, [In Persian].

[33] Z. Tardast, M. Niksereshet, A. Meshkini, “Explaining the Pattern of Spatial Organization of Urban Livability: Case Study: Ilam City,” Journal of Urban Structure and Function Studies, vol. 6, no. 20, pp. 105-125, 2019. DOI:10.22080/SHAHR.2019.15277.1663, [In Persian].

[34] M. Taleshi Anbohi, E. Aghaeizade, M. Jafari-Mehrabadi, “Structural Analysis of Livability of Urban Deteriorated Textures with a Futuristic Approach (Case Study: Deteriorated Texture of Region 1 of Qazvin City),” Urban Research and Planning Quarterly, vol. 10, no. 39, pp. 117-134, 2020. DOI:20.1001.1.22285229.1398.10.39.9.7, [In Persian].

[35] E. Aliakbari, “Spatial Analysis of Yasouj City with Livability Approach,” PhD dissertation in Geography and Urban Planning, Payam Noor University, Tehran Center, 2017, [In Persian].

[36] R.U. Pandey, Y.K. Garg, A. Bharat, “Understanding Qualitative Conceptions of Livability: An Indian Perspective,” International Journal of Research in Engineering and Technology, vol. 2(12), pp. 374-380, 2013. DOI:10.15623/ijret.2013.0212064.

[37] K. Irandoost, A. Isalo, B. Shahmoradi, “Livability Index in the Urban Environment: Case Study: Central Part of the Holy City of Qom,” vol. 4, no. 13, pp. 101-118, 2015. URL: http://iueam.ir/article-1-318-en.html [In Persian].

[38] M. Radaei, I. Salehi, Sh. Faryadi, “Strategic Analysis Based on Ecological Rationality for the Development of Urban Subsurface Spaces with a Livability Approach: Case Study: The Desert City of Yazd,” Urban and Regional Development Planning Quarterly, vol. 3, no. 6, pp. 43-80, 2018. DOI:10.22054/urdp.2020.46204.1151 [In Persian].

[39] A. Rezaiyan Qarabashi, E. Marzban, “Identification of Drivers, Uncertainties and Future Scenarios of Iran's Environment,” Journal of Health and Environment, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 531-554, 2019. URL: http://ijhe.tums.ac.ir/article-1-6278-en.html [In Persian].

[40] M.R. Rahnama, M.Ghanbari, S.Mohammadi Hamidi, S.Hosseini, “Evaluation and Measurement of Urban Livability in Ahvaz Metropolis,” Shahr Paydar Quarterly, vol. 2, no. 2, Summer 2018, pp. 1-17, DOI:10.22034/JSC.2019.197229.1090 [In Persian].

[41] K. Zalnejad, S. Hosseini, F. Alipour, “The impact of livable city principles in improving the satisfaction level of citizens: case study of District 4 of Tehran Municipality,” Armanshahr Architecture and Urbanization, no. 28, pp. 171-183, 2018. DOI:10.22034/AAUD.2019.111756.1388, [In Persian].

[42] D. Burden T. Litman, “America needs complete streets,” ITE Journal, vol. 81, no. 4, pp. 36-43, 2011.

[43] P. Howley, M. Scott D. Redmond, “Sustainability versus liveability: an investigation of neighbourhood satisfaction,” Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, vol. 52, no. 6, pp. 847-864, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1080/09640560903083798.

[44] A. Pedram, “Future research of a new field for exploration,” Defense Science and Technology Future Research Center - Defense Industries Educational and Research Institute, 2008, [In Persian].

[45] U. UNIDO, “UNIDO technology foresight manual: organization and methods,” Vienna: United Nations Industrial Development Organization, 2005.

[46] M. Karamdoost, “The role of urban management in the regeneration of worn-out structures in the 19th district of Tehran Metropolitan Municipality,” Master’s thesis in Geography and Urban Planning, Payam Noor University, Ray city center, 2016, [In Persian].

[47] S. A. Fatahyan, “Strategics of improving management of seismic crisis in region 20 of Tehran,” Disaster Prevention Management Knowledge, 2016. URL: http://dpmk.ir/article-1-56-fa.html [In Persian].

[48] Iran Statistics Center, “Statistical report,” 2015, [In Persian].

[49] M. Benjumea-Arias, L. Castañeda A. Valencia-Arias, “Structural analysis of strategic variables through micmac use: Case study,” Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 11-11, 2016. DOI:10.5901/mjss.2016.v7n4p11.

[50] N. Zali, “Foresight of regional development using the scenario-building technique,” Doctoral dissertation in Geography and Urban Planning, Tabriz University, 2008, [In Persian].

[51] N. Zali A. Poursohrab, “Regional Development Foresight with Emphasis on Combined Scenario Making and SWOT Analytical Model Approach,” MJSP, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 189-220, 2017. URL: http://hsmsp.modares.ac.ir/article-21-12149-fa.html [In Persian].