تاب‌آوری سالن شماره دو فرودگاه مهرآباد در بحران‌های احتمالی و ارزیابی زمان تخلیه اضطراری

نکوئی, محمدعلی; جعفری فشارکی, پرویز; حامدی, محدثه

تاب‌آوری سالن شماره دو فرودگاه مهرآباد در بحران‌های احتمالی و ارزیابی زمان تخلیه اضطراری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ استادیار گروه مدیریت بحران دانشکده پدافند غیرعامل دانشگاه صنعتی مالک اشتر، تهران، ایران

² دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت بحران دانشگاه صنعتی مالک اشتر، تهران، ایران

چکیده

هدف این مقاله، بررسی تاب‌آوری فرودگاه مهرآباد در بحران‌های احتمالی مانند جنگ و زلزله از طریق شبیه‌سازی تخلیه اضطراری جمعیت است. روش پژوهش از نوع توصیفی– تحلیلی، ازنظر حل مسئله ترکیبی و نوع نتایج تبیینی هست. جمع‌آوری اطلاعات میدانی و اسنادی انجام‌گرفته است. جامعه آماری شامل 160 نفر از متخصصان، هیئت‌علمی و دانشجویان تحصیلات تکمیلی است. از نمونه‌گیری تصادفی و از فرمول کوکران استفاده‌شده است. بعد از انجام مصاحبه و تکمیل پرسشنامه، سناریوهای سازگار از نرم‌افزار Wizard حاصل و سپس مدل‌سازی در حالت عادی و فاجعه و خوش‌بین با حداکثر دو عامل ناسازگار در Any Logic در نظر گرفته‌شده است. نتایج شبیه‌سازی نشان داده است زمان در سناریو چهارم بازمان تخلیه 125 دقیقه و زمان شبیه‌سازی 87/19 نسبت به بقیه سناریوها بیش‌تر است و در شرایط بحرانی‌تری قرار دارد. در سناریو 1 شرایط عادی ازآنجایی‌که همه درب‌های ورود و خروج سالم هستند درصد تخلیه افراد بلافاصله پس از شروع بحران حداکثر است، وجود موانع تأثیری در ایجاد گره جمعیتی نداشته و با گذر زمان جمعیت به‌تدریج خارج می‌شوند. در حالت فاجعه، زمان تخلیه 100 و شبیه‌سازی 11/59 دقیقه است. تاب‌آوری سالن شماره 2 فرودگاه در شرایط عادی مناسب است ولی در صورت وقوع بحران و افزایش تراکم، ترس و سرعت، بسیار پایین است. برخلاف پژوهش‌های پیشین که نگاهی تک‌بعدی به مصالح تخلیه اضطراری داشته‌اند؛ این مقاله رویکردی ترکیبی دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

20.1001.1.20086849.1402.14.2.2.4

عنوان مقاله [English]

Resilience of Hall Number Two of Mehrabad Airport in Possible Crises and Evaluation of Emergency Evacuation Time

نویسندگان [English]

mohamad ali nekoie ¹
Parviz Jafari Fesharaki ¹
mohadeseh hamedi ²

¹ malek ashtar

² malek ashtar

چکیده [English]

The purpose of this article is to investigate the resilience of Mehrabad airport in possible crises such as war and earthquake through the simulation of emergency population evacuation. The research method is descriptive-analytical, in terms of solving the combined problem and the type of explanatory results. . Collecting field and documentary information has been done. The statistical population includes 160 specialists, academic staff and graduate students. Random sampling and Cochran's formula were used. After conducting the interview and completing the questionnaire, compatible scenarios are obtained from Wizard software and then modeling in normal, disaster and optimistic mode with maximum two incompatible factors is considered in Any Logic. The results of the simulation have shown that the fourth scenario is in a more critical condition than the other scenarios with an evacuation time of 125 minutes and a simulation time of 87.19. In scenario 1, normal conditions, since all entry and exit doors are healthy, the percentage of evacuation of people is maximum immediately after the beginning of the crisis, the presence of obstacles has no effect on the creation of a population node, and over time, the population gradually leaves. In the case of a disaster, time Draining is 100 and simulating 59.11 minutes. The resilience of airport hall number 2 is suitable under normal conditions, but in the event of a crisis and an increase in density, fear and speed, it is very low. Unlike the previous studies that have a one-dimensional view of the emergency evacuation issue, this article has a mixed approach.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Emergency Evacuation
Simulation
Sensitivity Analysis Model

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